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  • Food Safety
    • Recalls & Public Health Alerts
      • Report a Problem with Food
        • Additional Recalls
      • Annual Recall Summaries
        • Summary of Recall and PHA Cases in Calendar Year 2023
        • Summary of Recall and PHA Cases in Calendar Year 2022
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2021
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2020
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2019
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2018
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2017
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2016
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2015
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2014
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2013
        • Summary of Recall Cases in Calendar Year 2012
    • Food Safety Stats
      • Consumer Research
    • Foodborne Illness and Disease
      • Enfermedades Transmitidas Por Alimentos y Otras Enfermedades
      • Illnesses and Pathogens
        • Botulism
          • Clostridium botulinum y El Botulismo
        • Campylobacter
          • Campylobacter En Español
        • E. coli
        • Listeria
        • Parasites and Foodborne Illness
          • Parásitos y Enfermedades Transmitidas Por los Alimentos
        • Preguntas y Respuestas Sobre Listeria
        • Salmonella
          • Preguntas y Respuestas Sobre Salmonella
      • Resources for Public Health Partners
        • State Departments of Public Health
      • Outbreaks
        • Outbreak Investigations: Prevention
        • Outbreak Investigations: Response
    • Safe Food Handling and Preparation
      • Food Safety Basics
        • Additives in Meat and Poultry Products
        • Aditivos en Productos Cárnicos y Avícolas
        • Agua en Carnes y Aves
        • Ahumar Carnes y Aves
        • Air Fryers and Food Safety
        • Alergias Alimentarias: Los “9 Grandes”
        • Appliance Thermometers
        • Asar a la parrilla y seguridad alimentaria
        • Cleanliness Helps Prevent Foodborne Illness
        • Cocción Versus Seguridad
        • Cocinar en Hornos Microondas
        • Cooking for Groups
        • Cooking with Microwave Ovens
        • Cutting Boards
        • Cómo Encontrar el Número de Establecimiento del USDA (EST) en el Empaque de Alimentos
        • Cómo las Temperaturas Afectan a los Alimentos
        • Danger Zone 40F - 140F
        • Deep Fat Frying
        • Doneness Versus Safety
        • El Color de la Carne y Las Aves
        • El Gran Deshielo: Métodos Seguros para Descongelar
        • El Manejo Adecuado de los Alimentos Pedidos Por Correo
        • Entendiendo las Retiradas de Alimentos del Mercado del FSIS
        • Fechas en Productos Alimenticios
        • Food Allergies: The “Big 9”
        • Food Thermometers
        • Freidoras de Aire y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Freír en Grasa y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Glosario de Términos de Empaque
        • Glossary of Packaging Terms
        • Grilling Food Safely
        • Grilling and Food Safety
        • Guía del Consumidor Sobre Inocuidad Alimentaria: Tormentas y Huracanes Severos
        • High Altitude Cooking
        • Hongos en los Alimentos: ¿Son Peligrosos?
        • How Temperatures Affect Food
        • How to Find the USDA Establishment Number
        • Importación de Productos Cárnicos, Avícolas y Ovoproductos a Estados Unidos
        • Importing Meat, Poultry & Egg Products US
        • Irradiation and Food Safety FAQ
        • Keeping "Bag" Lunches Safe
        • Keeping Food Safe During an Emergency
        • La Cocción En Elevaciones Altas
        • La Congelación Y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • La Limpieza Ayuda a Prevenir Enfermedades Transmitidas Por Los Alimentos
        • Las Ollas de Cocción Lenta y la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Las Sobras de Comida e Inocuidad Alimentaria
        • Lavado de Alimentos: ¿Promueve la Inocuidad Alimentaria?
        • Mail Order Food Safety
        • Manipulación Adecuada de Alimentos Para Llevar
        • Mantenga los Alimentos Seguros - Conceptos Básicos de Inocuidad Alimentaria
        • Manteniendo Seguros Los Almuerzos En "Bolsas"
        • Materiales de Empaque para Carnes y Aves
        • Meat and Poultry Labeling Terms
        • Meat and Poultry Packaging Materials
        • Molds on Food: Are They Dangerous?
        • Natural Flavors on Meat and Poultry Labels
        • Preguntas Frecuentes Sobre Irradiación y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Preguntas y Respuestas Sobre la Seguridad Alimentaria Durante un Tailgate
        • Sabores Naturales de Carnes y Aves en las Etiquetas
        • Safe Handling of Take-Out Foods
        • Seguridad Alimentaria Durante Caminatas, Campamentos y Paseos en Bote
        • Seguridad Alimentaria de Comida No Perecedera
        • Slow Cookers and Food Safety
        • Smoking Meat and Poultry
        • Tabla de Temperatura Interna Mínima Segura
        • Tablas de Cortar
        • Tailgating Food Safety Q & A
        • Termómetros para Alimentos
        • Termómetros para Electrodomésticos
        • Términos de Etiquetado de Carnes y Aves
        • Understanding FSIS Food Recalls
        • Voluntarios Sobre la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Water in Meat & Poultry
        • Zona de Peligro (40 F - 140 F)
        • Food Product Dating
        • Freezing and Food Safety
        • Leftovers and Food Safety
        • Refrigeration
          • La Refrigeración y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Safe Temperature Chart
        • Shelf-Stable Food
        • The Big Thaw — Safe Defrosting Methods
        • The Color of Meat and Poultry
        • Washing Food: Does it Promote Food Safety?
        • Food Safety While Hiking, Camping & Boating
      • Meat & Catfish
        • Bacon and Food Safety
        • Bagre de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Beef From Farm To Table
        • Bison from Farm to Table
        • Bisonte de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Cabra de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Carne Seca y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Carne de Cerdo Fresca de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Carne de Res de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Carne de Ternera de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Carne de res ablandada mecánicamente
        • Carne en Conserva y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Catfish from Farm to Table
        • Color de la Carne Molida Cocida en Relación Con El Grado De Cocción
        • Color of Cooked Ground Beef as It Relates to Doneness
        • Conejo de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Cordero de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Corned Beef
        • Cuando se Asan “Otras” Carnes para las Fiestas
        • Door-to-Door Meat Sales
        • El Jamón y la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • El Tocino y la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Fresh Pork from Farm to Table
        • Goat from Farm to Table
        • Ground Beef and Food Safety
        • Hams and Food Safety
        • Hot Dogs & Food Safety
        • Jerky
        • La Carne Molida y la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Lamb From Farm to Table
        • Las Salchichas “hot dogs” y la Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Los Embutidos y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Mechanically Tenderized Beef
        • Rabbit From Farm to Table
        • Roasting Those "Other" Holiday Meats
        • Sausages and Food Safety
        • Veal from Farm to Table
        • Venta de Carne a Domicilio
        • Yersiniosis and Chitterlings Tips
        • Yersiniosis y los Chinchulines (Tripas): Consejos Para Protegerlo de Enfermedades Transmitidas Por Alimentos
      • Poultry
        • Happy Thanksgiving!
        • Amarras para las Aves y Otros Accesorios
        • Aves: Baños en Solución, Salmueras y Marinadas
        • Chicken From Farm to Table
        • Chicken Liver
        • Duck and Goose from Farm to Table
        • El Relleno y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Hablemos Sobre el Pavo: Una Guía Para el Consumidor Sobre Cómo Asar un Pavo de Forma Segura
        • Hock Locks and Other Accoutrements
        • Is Pink Turkey Meat Safe?
        • La Etiqueta del Ave Dice “Fresco”
        • La Preparación de Turduckens Requiere un Manejo Adecuado
        • Let's Talk Turkey Roasting
        • Pato y Ganso de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Pavo de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Pavo: Rutas Alternativas Hacia la Mesa
        • Pollo de la Granja a la Mesa
        • Poultry Processing: Questions & Answers
        • Poultry: Basting, Brining, and Marinating
        • Preparación Básica del Pavo: Cocinar De Forma Adecuada
        • Preparación Básica del Pavo: Como Descongelar Seguramente
        • Preparación Básica del Pavo: El Relleno
        • Preparación Básica del Pavo: Manejo de las Comidas Cocidas
        • Procesamiento de Aves: Preguntas y Respuestas
        • Stuffing and Food Safety
        • The Poultry Label Says "Fresh"
        • Turduckens Require Safe Food Handling
        • Turkey Basics: Handling Cooked Dinners
        • Turkey Basics: Safe Cooking
        • Turkey Basics: Safe Thawing
        • Turkey Basics: Stuffing
        • Turkey from Farm to Table
        • Turkey: Alternate Routes to the Table
        • ¿Es Segura la Carne de Pavo Rosada?
      • Eggs
        • Egg Products and Food Safety
        • Huevos en Cascarón De la Granja a la Mesa
        • Ovoproductos e Inocuidad Alimentaria
        • Shell Eggs from Farm to Table
      • Emergencies
        • A Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes
        • Eliminando Olores de Refrigeradores y Congeladores
        • Fires and Food Safety
        • Incendios y Seguridad Alimentaria
        • Keep Your Food Safe During Emergencies
        • Removing Odors from Refrigerators and Freezers
      • USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline
      • Brochures & Publications
    • Food Defense and Emergency Response
      • Emergency Response
      • Continuity of Operations (COOP)
      • Food Defense
        • Risk Mitigation Tool
        • Food Defense Considerations for Transportation of FSIS-Regulated Products
        • Food Defense Tools, Resources and Training
        • Functional Food Defense Plans
        • International Food Defense
  • Science & Data
    • Research Priorities
      • FSIS/ORISE Food Safety Fellowship Program
        • Aaron Dudley
        • Lauren Lee
        • Sharon Nieves-Miranda
        • Yesutor Soku
        • Ali Strickland
    • Data Sets & Visualizations
      • Microbiology
        • Baseline Microbiology Data Reports
        • Microbiological Testing Program for RTE Meat and Poultry Products
          • Tables & Results Microbiological Testing Program for RTE Meat
          • Tables & Results: Microbiological Testing Program Pasteurized Egg Products
          • Aggregate Salmonella Categorization of Raw Chicken Parts, NRTE Comminuted Poultry, Young Chicken Carcass and Young Turkey Carcass Establishments Using Moving Windows
          • Salmonella Initiative Program Criteria
            • Quarterly Sampling Reports on Antimicrobial Resistance
            • Quarterly Sampling Reports on Raw Beef Products
            • Quarterly Sampling Reports on Ready-to-eat Products and Egg Products
            • Quarterly Sampling Reports on Salmonella
            • Salmonella Action Plan: A One and Two Year Update
        • Microbiological Testing Program for Escherichia coli O157:H7 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)
          • Year-to-Date Totals: Testing of Raw Ground Beef Component (RGBC) Samples for E. coli O157:H7 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC)
          • Annual Report for STEC in Raw Ground Beef or Veal and Raw Ground Beef or Veal Components
          • Individual E. coli Positive Results for Raw Ground Beef (RGB) and RGB Components 2017
          • Individual E. coli Positive Results for Raw Ground Beef (RGB) and RGB Components 2018
          • Individual E. coli Positive Results for Raw Ground Beef (RGB) and RGB Components 2016
          • Individual E. coli Positive Results for Raw Ground Beef (RGB) and RGB Components 2015
          • Year-to-Date 2018 Totals: Results of Raw Ground Beef Component (RGBC) Samples for E. coli O157:H7 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC):
        • Salmonella Verification Testing Program Monthly Posting
      • Chemical Residues and Contaminants
      • Humane Handling Data
      • Laboratory Sampling Data
        • Egg Product Testing, Years 1995-2017
      • Inspection Task Data
    • Developer Resources
      • Recall API
    • Scientific Reports
      • Public Health Regulations (PHR)
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2025
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2024
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2023
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2022
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2021
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2020
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2019
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2018
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2017
        • FSIS Data Analysis and Reporting: Public Health Regulations FY 2016
      • Interagency Food Safety Analytics Collaboration (IFSAC)
    • Laboratories & Procedures
      • Accredited Laboratory Program
        • Key Facts: ISO Accreditation
      • FSIS Laboratories
        • Requesting Bacterial Isolates from FSIS
    • Risk Assessments
    • Sampling Program
      • Raw Pork Products Exploratory Sampling Program
      • Sampling Results for FSIS Regulated Products
    • National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS)
    • Journal Publications
  • Policy
    • Food Safety Acts
      • Federal Meat Inspection Act
      • Poultry Products Inspection Act
      • Egg Products Inspection Act
      • Humane Methods of Slaughter Act
    • FSIS Guidelines
    • Directives & Notices
      • FSIS Notices
      • FSIS Directives
    • Petitions
    • Federal Register & Rulemaking
      • Federal Register Notices
      • Federal Register Rules
      • Executive Orders, Small Business Protection Laws & Other Guidance
      • Regulatory Priorities
    • Advisory Committees
      • National Advisory Committee on Meat and Poultry Inspection (NACMPI)
      • National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria For Foods (NACMCF)
        • 2023-2025 National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for Foods (NACMCF)
        • 2021-2023 National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria For Foods (NACMCF)
        • NACMCF 2022 Subcommittee
        • 2018-2020 National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria For Foods (NACMCF)
    • FSIS Procurement
    • National Federal Financial Assistance
    • Regulatory Decisions & Non-Retaliation
  • Inspection
    • Inspection Programs
      • Inspection of Meat Products
        • Humane Handling Ombudsman
        • Modernization of Swine Slaughter Inspection
      • Inspection of Poultry Products
        • Reducing Salmonella in Poultry
          • Pilot Projects: Salmonella Control Strategies
          • Proposed Regulatory Framework to Reduce Salmonella Illnesses Attributable to Poultry
            • Component 1
            • Component 2
            • Component 3
          • Salmonella By the Numbers
          • Salmonella KPI
          • Salmonella Risk Assessments
        • Modernization of Poultry Slaughter Inspection
      • Inspection of Egg Products
      • Inspection of Siluriformes
    • Compliance Guidance
      • Significant Guidance
      • HACCP
        • HACCP-Based-Inspection Models Project
          • New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS)
          • HIMP Redesign Achievement of Performance Standards Young Chicken Plants
          • List of HIMP Participating Plants
        • HACCP Validation
      • PHIS
        • PHIS: Historical Information
      • Retail Guidance
      • Small & Very Small Plant Guidance
        • Appealing Inspection Decisions
        • Food Safety Resources for Small and Very Small Plant Outreach: Order Form
        • Small Plant Help Desk
        • Small Plant Help Desk Form
      • Microbial Risk
        • Listeria Monocytogenes
        • Salmonella
        • Shiga Toxin-Producing E.Coli (STEC) and E. Coli O157:H7
        • Specified Risk Material
          • BSE Rules Being Strictly Enforced
            • BSE Workshops for Small & Very Small Plants
          • FSIS BSE Resources
      • Specified Risk Material Resources
      • Food Safety Assessments Tools
      • Recall Process
      • Sanitation Performance Standards Compliance Guide
      • Labeling
        • Basics of Labeling
        • Claims Guidance
        • Nonfood Compounds
          • Compounds Used for Construction and Repair in Federally Inspected Meat and Poultry Plants
          • Criteria Used by the Former Compounds and Packaging Branch for Evaluating Nonfood Compounds and Proprietary Substances
        • Ingredients Guidance
        • Label Submission and Approval System (LSAS)
          • Integration of Paper Label Applications into the Label Submission and Approval System (LSAS)
        • Labeling Policies
          • Human Food Made with Cultured Animal Cells
          • Regulations for Package Dating
          • Comprehensive List of Reasons for Label Modifications and Returns
        • Labeling Procedures
          • Information Required For Requesting a Temporary Approval
          • 10 Most Common Mistakes And How to Avoid Them
          • Label Submission Checklist
          • Labeling Situations That Can Not Have a Temporary Approval
          • Labeling and Establishment Responsibilities
          • Ten Most Commonly Asked Labeling Questions
          • Trans Fat Declarations in the Nutrition Facts Panel on Product Labeling
      • New Technology
        • Cooperative Agreements FY 2003
        • Cooperative Agreements FY 2004
        • Cooperative Agreements FY 2005
        • Food Safety Technologies FY 2003
        • Food Safety Technologies FY 2004
        • Food Safety Technologies FY 2005
        • NOL for Non-O157 STEC Test Methods
        • New Technology Information Table
      • Humane Handling
    • Import & Export
      • Import & Export Library
        • Eligible Foreign Establishments
        • Eligible U.S. Establishments by Country
          • Australia Eligible Establishments
          • Hong Kong Lamb Export Eligible Establishments
          • Hong Kong Pork Export Eligible Establishments
          • Hong Kong Poultry Export Eligible Establishments
          • Brazil Export Eligible Establishments
          • Egypt Export Eligible Establishments
          • Hong Kong Beef Export Eligible Establishments
          • Israel Export Eligible Establishments
          • Japan (Casings) Export Eligible Establishments
          • Japan (Cold Storage Facilities) Export Eligible Establishments
          • Mexico Export Eligible Establishments
          • Russia (Beef) Export Eligible Establishments
          • Russia (Pork) Export Eligible Establishments
          • Russia (Poultry) Export Eligible Establishments
          • Russia (Prepared Products) Export Eligible Establishments
          • South Africa Eligible Establishments
      • Import Guidance
        • FSIS Import Procedures for Meat, Poultry & Egg Products
        • FSIS Import Reinspection
        • Sourcing Egg Products and Shell Eggs From Foreign Countries
      • Export Guidance
      • Equivalence
      • PHIS Components
      • International Reports
        • Foreign Audit Reports
        • Import and Export Data
    • Regulatory Enforcement
      • Humane Handling Enforcement
      • Quarterly Enforcement Reports
    • Inspection Training & Videos
      • Humane Interactive Knowledge Exchange (HIKE) Scenarios
      • Inspection & Mission Training
      • Meat, Poultry and Egg Product Inspection Videos
      • Regulatory Education Video Seminars
    • Apply for Grant of Inspection
      • Grants & Financial Options
    • State Inspection Programs
      • Cooperative Interstate Shipping Program
        • Cooperative Interstate Shipment (CIS) Establishments
      • Guidance Documents for State and Local Agencies
      • States With and Without Inspection Programs
      • Reviews of State Programs
    • Establishments
      • FSIS Inspected Establishments
      • Meat, Poultry and Egg Product Inspection Directory
    • Inspection Forms
  • About FSIS
    • History
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        • ARCHIVE: Professional Development and Education Benefits as a Recruitment Tool
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        • ARCHIVE: Third FSIS International Meat, Poultry and Egg Products Inspection Seminar Held in Santiago, Chile
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        • ARCHIVE: Dearborn, Mich., Circuit Inspectors Receive Collaborative Coins
        • ARCHIVE: Don’t Invite Foodborne Illness to the Party
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        • ARCHIVE: Remembering Their Sacrifice: Jean Hillery, Tom Quadros and Bill Shaline
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Policy Risk Assessments
10/01/2005, 08:00AM EDT

2005 Harvard Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Update

In December 2003, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the discovery of a cow with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or “mad cow disease”) in Washington State. Shortly thereafter, the Secretary of Agriculture announced several new steps designed to further reduce the risk that meat from affected animals would reach humans. Following that time, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) considered new rules to help prevent the spread of BSE among cattle through contaminated animal feed. USDA Secretary Veneman convened a panel of international experts (formally known as the International Review Subcommittee of the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Foreign Animal and Poultry Diseases) to evaluate USDA’s investigation of the BSE cow and BSE risk management measures and to advise USDA regarding possible further steps to address BSE in the United States.

We have used the simulation model developed by the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA)(Cohen 2003a; Cohen 2003b) to evaluate the risk of BSE spreading among cattle in the U.S. and the potential for humans to be exposed to contaminated tissues. We model the response of the U.S. agricultural system for 20 years following the import of BSE-infected cattle. Key predictions made by the HCRA simulation model include the number of additional new cases of BSE that develop subsequent to the hypothetical introduction of infected animals into the U.S., the amount of BSE infective agent, measured as cattle oral ID50s potentially available in human food, and the epidemic’s basic reproduction rate, R0. We present results as distributions reflecting the probabilistic nature of the model and the processes simulated. In addition, we conduct sensitivity analyses to evaluate the extent to which alternative assumptions shift these distributions.

Our updated “base case” represents the circumstances in the U.S. prior to the December 2003 discovery of the animal with BSE in Washington State. We then analyze the impact of risk management measures adopted by USDA, considered by FDA, or proposed by the International Review Subcommittee since that discovery1 . Just before the completion of this report, FDA published proposed rules governing the disposition of animals that die before being sent to slaughter. This analysis does not consider those proposals (see Federal Register, 70(193): 58569-58601, October 6, 2005). 

Because of updated scientific data about infectious tissues, new information about compliance with the FDA feed controls, new assumptions regarding beef consumption, and structural changes in the model related to the disposition of non-ambulatory cattle, the base case projections differ slightly from those reported in our October, 2003 BSE Final Report (Cohen 2003a).

In addition, because of interest by the USDA Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) in how rule changes might affect the contribution of specific tissues to potential human exposure, we took steps to ensure greater numerical stability and more reliable representation of very low probability events. First, we conducted 750,000 trials of our standard base case scenario. That scenario models the U.S. cattle population and contamination of the human food supply for 20 years following the introduction of 10 BSE-infected cattle. For computational convenience, we then decreased the number of trials conducted (from 750,000 to 50,000 per scenario) and increased the number of infected animals introduced (from 10 to 500). Effectively, the numerical precision of a set of trials (expressed as the standard error of the mean divided by the estimated mean) depends on the product of the number of trials run and the number of infected animals introduced. Hence, the 50,000 trials of the base case with 500 infected animals introduced (25 million infected animals introduced in total) yielded even more precise estimates than the 750,000 trials of the base case with 10 infected animals introduced (7.5 million infected animals introduced in total).

Results indicate that the arithmetic mean of the resulting projections scaled by the ratio of the number of infected animals introduced (i.e., by 500 divided by 10, or 50). For example, the average number of new BSE infections increased from 3.5 animals to 180 animals (rounded to two significant digits), while the average contamination of human food increased from 75 cattle oral ID50s to 3,800 ID50s. Although the introduction of 500 BSE-infected cattle into the U.S. is extremely unlikely, this scenario allowed us to achieve satisfactory numerical stability using far less computer time. For this reason, all alternative scenarios and sensitivity analyses assumed the introduction of 500 infected cattle. In evaluating the results of the analyses in this report it should be recognized that the hypothetical introduction of 500 infected animals is simply for computational convenience and has no basis in any estimate of potential U.S. risk.

Sensitivity analysis identified the assumed rate of misfeeding (i.e., the deliberate or accidental administration to cattle of feed containing ruminant protein and designated for non­ - 5 - ruminants only) as an important parameter. Assigning the misfeeding rate the pessimistic value assumed in our sensitivity analysis increased the expected number of new BSE cases over 20 years by a factor of almost 15 compared to the base case (i.e., from 180 to 2,600), while the mean value of R0 increased from 0.24 in the base case to 0.89. However, information available to quantify the misfeeding rate at the time this analysis was conducted was extremely limited, leading to a wide range of estimates for this influential parameter. Better information would substantially narrow the range of plausible projections generated by the model. Lengthening the assumed incubation period by a factor of two decreased the mean number of newly BSE-infected cattle from 180 to 43 and potential human exposure from 3,800 cattle oral ID50s to 1,900 cattle oral ID50s. Other parameters evaluated as part of the sensitivity analysis (mislabeling and contamination rates, render reduction factors, beef on bone consumption rates, and the success of antemortem inspection at detecting clinically ill BSE cattle) were far less influential.

We found that the food safety measures enacted by USDA all reduce potential human exposure to BSE infectivity but have little effect on spread of BSE in the cattle population. Removing non-ambulatory (“downer”) cattle from the human food supply reduces predicted potential human exposure by about 3% (leaving a mean of 3,700 cattle oral ID50s). Removing high risk tissues, often called specified risk materials or SRMs, from animals over 30 months of age almost completely eliminates potential human exposure, reducing it to 11 cattle oral ID50s. Prohibiting only the use of advanced meat recovery (AMR, derived from the skull and backbone) on animals over 30 months of age reduces potential human exposure by approximately two-fifths to 2,200 ID50s. It is worth noting that these are relative reductions to what is already a small risk in absolute terms, especially in light of the fact that these simulations reflect the assumed introduction of 500 infected cattle into the U.S. None of the combined measures yielded substantial improvements over their components.

We evaluated two measures under consideration by FDA, including a prohibition on the use of ruminant blood in ruminant feed, and the requirement that plants producing both prohibited material (i.e., ruminant-derived material) and non-prohibited material use dedicated production lines. Our analysis indicates that neither of these actions would have much impact on the spread of BSE. Our earlier report (Cohen 2003a) concluded that blood contributes relatively little to the spread of BSE. Similarly, our earlier work suggests that cross-contamination is a relatively minor factor.

The International Review Subcommittee convened by Secretary Veneman has suggested the possibility of a ban on specified risk material from animals 12 months and older for both human food and animal feed. We evaluate the impact of this ban assuming perfect compliance. Our analysis suggests that this measure is extremely effective at reducing potential human exposure, decreasing it by more than 99% relative to the base case. Because we assumed that the ban also removes SRMs from dead stock prior to their rendering, the measure achieves a substantial reduction in the spread of BSE among cattle, decreasing the number of new infected BSE cases in the U.S. to 35 from 180. We predict that another suggestion made by this group, the removal of all animal-derived protein from cattle feed, would decrease the number of new BSE cases from 180 to 170 over 20 eyears. The remaining cases result primarily from misfeeding of rations containing ruminant proteins (feed intended for other species), to cattle. This measure has a small predicted impact on potential human exposure.

Overall, it is clear that by eliminating the most BSE-infectious tissue from human food, specified risk material bans have a substantial impact on potential human exposure. Eliminating this material from cattle feed can have an important impact on the spread of BSE among cattle if steps are taken to ensure that such bans also cover dead stock. It is important to note that we have not systematically evaluated all possible SRM bans (e.g., prohibitions that set cutoffs at different ages than those evaluated here). Nor have we evaluated the potential risks resulting from the disposal of SRMs and other costs associated with these bans.

Related Media

2005 Harvard Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Update Report
BSE Appendix 1
BSE Appendix 2
BSE Appendix 2A
BSE Risk Assessment 2B
BSE Risk Assessment 2C
BSE Risk Assessment Appendix 3
BSE Appendix 4
BSE Reviewers
Last Updated: Oct 01, 2005
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